Ali Khamenei Was Likely a Puppet of the Revolutionary Guards — When Absolute Power Ages, Manipulation Is Inevitable —

Iran's negotiations with the United States have descended into serious confusion and repeated reversals, exposing a fierce internal power struggle. But beneath the surface, this chaos reflects the process by which the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) — having long held absolute de facto power — is now fighting to prevent its own demise. For at least a decade, the IRGC has likely controlled the real levers of power in Iran, manipulating Supreme Leader Ali Hosseini Khamenei from behind the scenes.

The IRGC's Monopoly on Power, Built on Khamenei's Absolute Trust

When Ali Khamenei and his inner circle were eliminated in the early stages of the war, a brief power vacuum emerged — but the IRGC's capacity for control remained intact. Because the IRGC dominates both Iran's political power and its economy, it has maintained an uncompromising hardline stance, in stark contrast to the civilian administration, which must actually govern the country and care for its people.

Since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, the most powerful force in Iran has been the Revolutionary Guards, operating under the supreme leader's absolute trust. The IRGC guaranteed the supreme leader's authority — and in doing so, secured absolute power for itself.

The IRGC Controls 40% of GDP — Economic Power as Its Foundation

The IRGC dominates Iran's core industries — construction, oil, telecommunications, and finance — and is estimated to control up to 40% of Iran's GDP. The Guards are intensely focused on power and self-interest, with no concern whatsoever for the economy or ordinary citizens. Having long taken for granted their claim to the lion's share of economic gains, they have never needed to worry about the people — and have forgotten what that concern even feels like.

The clearest illustration of this came in 2009, when President Ahmadinejad attempted to introduce liberalizing reforms during the protest wave. The IRGC commander-in-chief publicly berated the president and struck him — and faced no punishment whatsoever. Ahmadinejad, on the other hand, was politically destroyed as a result and eventually placed under house arrest. This episode remains the most powerful demonstration that the IRGC's authority surpasses that of any elected president. Such absolute power cannot be built in a year or two.

Kim Il-sung Was Manipulated by His Own Son for 14 Years

The IRGC knows that the ongoing talks in Pakistan represent the end of its power and privilege — and that is precisely why it cannot accept any negotiated outcome. For at least the past decade, the IRGC has exercised absolute authority in Iran, almost certainly treating Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei himself as a puppet. An organization that has controlled even its own supreme religious leader will never voluntarily relinquish or dilute that power.

History offers a clear precedent. When absolute rulers grow old, it is inevitable that their most trusted successor or inner circle will begin to control them. This pattern has repeated itself across dictatorships. China's Mao Zedong was manipulated in his final years by his wife Jiang Qing and her allies, the so-called "Gang of Four," who were later put on trial after his death. In North Korea, Kim Il-sung was gradually brought under the control of his son Kim Jong-il from around 1980, when he was approximately 68 years old — though Kim Il-sung had no idea this was happening in the early stages.

Kim Il-sung had intended to designate his son by his second wife, Kim Pyong-il, as his successor. But Kim Jong-il fought a ruthless power struggle and secured his position as the de facto heir around 1968. Those who had supported Kim Pyong-il were mostly purged or eliminated throughout the 1970s.

In 1972, after becoming the Party's Organization Secretary, Kim Jong-il handpicked university graduates and young party officials to form a special body called the "Three Revolutions Team Movement," using it to steadily erode Kim Il-sung's grip on the Korean Workers' Party from within. By the late 1970s, Kim Il-sung was lavishing praise on his son's political achievements — and in doing so, effectively completed Kim Jong-il's consolidation of absolute power. From that point on, Kim Jong-il controlled all information flowing to his father, and through that control, controlled the man himself. By 1991, Kim Il-sung had been stripped of even his military command. In 1994, he briefly reasserted his political standing through a summit with former U.S. President Jimmy Carter, and was preparing to meet South Korean President Kim Young-sam — but died suddenly in July of that year, for reasons that were never made fully clear.

When Absolute Power Ages, Manipulation Is Inevitable

As North Korea and China both demonstrate, it is a historical inevitability that when an absolute ruler ages, the most trusted figure or faction around him will move to take control. Ali Khamenei was almost certainly subject to IRGC manipulation well before he turned 80. He no doubt believed, until the end, that he was the one in charge.

The most recent evidence speaks for itself. Reports have emerged that an IRGC military council has cut President Pezeshkian off from Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, vetoed presidential cabinet appointments, and seized effective control of the Iranian state.

The conclusion is clear. The Revolutionary Guards cannot surrender power — because they know that the moment they do, they cease to exist. The destruction of the IRGC is where any genuine resolution to the Iran crisis must begin.

Seungcheol Kim (NKMAN) | nkmans@naver.com 

A former North Korean who left in 1991 and entered South Korea in 1994. He served as a researcher at the Institute of North Korea Studies (1997–2007) and as President of North Korea Reform Radio (2008–2025). Drawing on firsthand experience of totalitarian fear politics, he continues to work not merely as a critic, but as an advocate for ending dictatorship and advancing democracy.